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O mercado global tem se mantido firme e resistente, desde a crise econômica de 2008 e 2009, mesmo com o aumento significativo da oferta de lácteos em todo o mundo.
A produção de leite no Hemisfério Sul foi particularmente robusta, Nova Zelândia (+10%), Argentina (+14%), em 2011. Na União Europeia o incremento foi o maior, desde que foi estabelecido o regime de quotas, em 1984, (+2%).
O aumento total da Europa,Oceania, Argentina e Estados Unidos foi de 7,6 milhões de toneladas, no ano ado, e os compradores ao redor do mundo absorveram toda essa oferta adicional, suavizando os preços no segundo semestre, mas, não causando nenhum colapso.
As compras de leite em pó, proteínas de soro, queijo e nata aumentaram 18%, em 2011, depois de terem dobrado de volume, entre 2008 e 2010, chegando a colossais 525 mil toneladas, em três anos.
A expectativa é de que essa demanda permaneça, em 2012. A exportação desses quatro produtos cresceu 12% para o México, 9% para o Japão e 35% para a Coreia do Sul.
O mercado internacional de lácteos sofreu mudanças estruturais nos últimos dois anos, e, em 2011, por exemplo, os preços subiram de 18 a 30%, em relação à média dos últimos cinco anos. A elevação de mais de 50% nos preços da manteiga fez com que o produto norte-americano ficasse competitivo, mesmo com a tendência de queda demonstrada de julho de 2011 para cá.
O Departamento de Comércio (Usdec) e analistas observam que a demanda global já ultraou a capacidade dos fornecedores de baixo custo. Assim os preços subiram para incentivar a produção de agricultores, e os dos Estados Unidos estão sendo bastante beneficiados.
Não obstante as recentes quedas de preços, a demanda continua em níveis mais elevados do que a do ano ado, principalmente pelo aumento do poder aquisitivo de mercados emergentes. Também os custos de proteínas e gorduras alternativas aumentaram em decorrência da inflação mundial de alimentos.
De Maio de 2011 para cá os preços dos produtos lácteos já caíram entre 10 e 20%. A concorrência está mais acirrada e os compradores mais confortáveis, e sem muita pressa para fechar negócios. Os problemas econômicos globais continuam preocupando, principalmente a crise da dívida na Europa. 2012 será um ano desafiador, e vai testar a habilidade dos exportadores.
