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Las expectativas respecto a la demanda por lácteos de China permanecen siendo positivas, a pesar de que los analistas pronostican un descenso en el crecimiento económico del país para el 2015, menciona el Consejo de Exportación de Lácteos de los Estados Unidos (USDEC). Este es el menor crecimiento desde 1990, pero los analistas mencionan que el apetito por lácteos de los chinos se mantiene “robusto”.
USDEC destaca que el crecimiento de la producción local está afectado por el desarrollo lento de los tambos y los costos de producción, lo que no permitiría que su producción cubra la demanda. Una población infantil cada vez más amplia, dirigiéndose a crecer en 16 millones este año, la expansión de la clase media, la urbanización y el crecimiento general de la población permanecerán sin restricciones relacionadas a la tasa de crecimiento económico.
Para 2024 se espera que el consumo de lácteos crezca un 42% pasando de los 43 millones de toneladas de leche líquida a 61 millones de toneladas (casi la producción anual de Nueva Zelanda). Esto ocuriría según el director de análisis del comercio mundial de USDEC Brad Gehrke quien restó importancia al efecto del menor crecimiento económico. “La tasa de crecimiento del producto bruto interno (PBI) puede ser un punto de referencia engañoso para estimar el consumo de productos lácteos de China y la evolución de las importaciones”, dijo Gehrke.
“La tasa de crecimiento del PBI de la nación se está desacelerando, pero debido a que la base ha aumentado, generando un incremento absoluto per cápita o por hogar aún mayor.” Todo en un contexto en que la producción interna de leche “no es probable que se vuelva autosuficiente”, con productores de baja escala desapareciendo y grandes explotaciones en desarrollo. El aumento en las importaciones de China en los próximos años será “considerable” entre ocho y diez millones de toneladas, mencionó Gehrke.
“Las importaciones de China van a mantenerse para cubrir la demanda de las bocas adicionales, a pesar de gastar miles de millones en la construcción de tambos grandes y más eficientes”. “No hay dudas de que habrán altas y bajas en los patrones de compra (de China). Pero aunque las compras puedan variar mes a mes, e incluso trimestre a trimestre, de hecho, la perspectiva de largo plazo es muy positiva”.
