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El Banco de Nueva Zelanda está afiliado a la idea que los precios internacionales se recuperen hacia fin de este año, aún cuando recortó su pronóstico de precios de la leche al productor para 2015/2016.
El Banco recortó su predicción de precios al productor para 2015/2016 (de NZ$ 4,30 por kilogramo de sólidos de leche a NZ$ 3.80) basado en la fragilidad de los precios de los commodities a nivel internacional, así como aspectos específicos del sector como el embargo Ruso y los todavía elevados stocks de China.
Los productores están en rojo
La caída del precio al productor prevista por el Banco de Nueva Zelanda se encuentra muy por debajo de la estimación que Fonterra hiciera para inicios del mes de junio (NZ$5.25), sin embargo se espera que ésta revise a la baja los precios a inicios de agosto.
Niveles de precio al productor como los pronosticados por el Banco de Nueva Zelanda dejaría otro año de caída de precios para los productores. Esto significaría grandes pérdidas para los productores, cuyo costo de producción se encuentra en NZ$ 5,70 por kilogramo de sólidos lácteos.
Los precios se recuperarán
Analistas del Banco de Nueva Zelanda estiman que a pesar de la fragilidad de precios en el corto plazo, cabría una recuperación en los próximos 12 meses.
La recuperación de precios vendrá principalmente por el retroceso en la producción debido a los bajos precios, así como el fenómeno de “El Niño”, aunque sin dejar de mencionar que el patrón de clima "es apenas una buena forma para que [las alzas de precios] se produzcan".
Los mercados se están ajustando lentamente dado que los menores precios a nivel mundial se están transmitiendo a los productores, por lo tanto, fueron recortadas las predicciones de producción para varios países.
USDA recortó sus estimaciones de producción mundial para 2015 aunque todavía representa un aumento de cerca de 4,7 millones de toneladas en relación al año pasado.
Demanda anémica
Los factores que hicieron que los precios internacionales de los lácteos declinaran todavía están presentes: la demanda China permanece frágil, el embargo ruso continúa hasta 2016 y dólar sigue relativamente fuerte.
