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Tão grande quanto a surpresa foi o ponto de interrogação que surgiu logo após o anúncio da saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia (UE).
O Brasil é um dos maiores interessados no que acontece do lado de lá do Atlântico, já que, em termos de comércio exterior, os europeus estão na segunda posição do nosso ranking, atrás apenas da China.
Segundo analistas, a oficialização do processo, que ficou conhecido como Brexit, deve se arrastar, no mínimo, por mais um ano. “Os acordos que estão fechados com a UE não mudam, até por força da Organização Mundial do Comércio [OMC]. Mas as negociações futuras podem ser afetadas. É um novo equilíbrio de poder”, afirma a superintendente de Relações Internacionais na Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil (CNA), Alinne Oliveira.
Diante das incertezas, a balança política – e consequentemente a econômica – pode pender para países que, historicamente, mantiveram um posicionamento mais conservador dentro do bloco, como a França. “Se por um lado, a França ganha mais peso, por outro, nações como Alemanha e Itália também se fortalecem. A tomada de decisões é um processo conjunto, não acredito que haja tanto espaço para conservadorismo”, pondera o professor da Universidade Positivo e especialista em comércio exterior, Gustavo Iamin.
Oportunidades
Se hoje o cenário parece tão nublado como costuma ser o clima em Londres, no futuro o Brexit pode trazer mudanças. E para melhor, de acordo com os estudiosos. “Pode ser uma excelente oportunidade de negócios para o Brasil”, diz Alinne Oliveira. “A União Europeia é muito rígida com a entrada de carnes, frutas e outros produtos no continente. Enquanto o Reino Unido sempre teve uma postura muito mais liberal”, explica.
