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China abre compras sin aranceles en enero y genera incertidumbres previas.
El mercado lácteo de este año hay que mirarlo en perspectiva, porque más allá de las reducciones de precios en la última venta de Fonterra (Nueva Zelanda), con una caída en la leche en polvo entera de un 7,7%, las señales de recuperación siguen firmes y con un ajuste de la oferta mundial a la baja.
Esta visión corresponde a los analistas del Instituto Nacional de la Leche (Inale) al abordar puntualmente la última licitación de Fonterra y perspectivas del mercado para 2017.
El informe señala que es muy probable que la incertidumbre de comienzo de año relativa a cómo se comportará la demanda China haya sido el factor principal detrás de la reciente baja ocurrida en el precio de la leche en polvo entera de la plataforma GlobalDairyTrade.
La ventana para compra libre de aranceles la abre el gobierno chino en enero y genera incertidumbres previas, sostiene Inale.
Sin embargo, hay expectativas de que las importaciones chinas aumenten. China tiene muy bajos sus stocks, la producción 2016 se contraerá 6% y en 2017 volverá a contraerse al 2%.
El instituto entiende que al hacer un análisis de esta naturaleza son importantes las tendencias para los próximos mees. iten que la volatilidad es muy probable.
Hay factores que presionan al alza de precios (contracción de producción en las regiones exportadoras, fortalecimiento de demanda interna en EE.UU y Unión Europea, recuperación de la demanda China) y otros factores que presionan a la baja (fortalecimiento del dólar, bajo precio del petróleo, stocks en EE.UU y Unión Europea).
Pero, continúan las señales estructurales positivas: la producción de los principales exportadores sigue ajustando a la baja y la demanda continúa mejorando.
Acerca del impacto sobre los precios se entiende que es poca la probabilidad de mejoras significativas adicionales a las ocurridas. Habrá un sostenimiento de los actuales niveles de precios con vaivenes esperables.
La situación del mercado hoy es mucho mejor que la de hace un año atrás. El precio de la leche en polvo entera es 50% superior. Inclusive 20% superior a la de hace dos meses, indica el informe.
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