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Sin embargo, una vez que se tiene en cuenta la inflación, no se cree que los precios en términos reales volverán a los niveles máximos de 2013.
Se espera que la producción mundial de leche aumente un 21% entre 2016 y 2026, alcanzando los 977Mt. Se prevé que la mayor parte de este aumento (77%) provenga de los países en desarrollo, en particular la India y el Pakistán, a medida que aumenten los efectivos y la productividad. Sin embargo, se espera que la mayor parte de ese aumento se consuma en los propios paises como productos lácteos frescos, y el consumo de estos productos crece a un 1,8% por año en las regiones en desarrollo a lo largo de la década.
No obstante, también se espera que la demanda mundial de productos lácteos procesados aumente un 1,7% anual, apoyando los precios de los productos básicos. En las regiones desarrolladas, se prevé que el crecimiento del consumo de queso y de la Leche entera en polvo que sobrepasará la de la década anterior. Sin embargo, en los países en desarrollo, con la excepción del queso, se espera que el crecimiento del consumo de productos elaborados sea más lento que antes. No obstante, se espera que la expansión del consumo supere la producción en las regiones de África, Asia y Medio Oriente, aumentando sus necesidades de importación a lo largo de la década.
Los países desarrollados proporcionan el 82% de las exportaciones de productos lácteos, y se prevé que esta cuota de mercado crezca ligeramente en 2026. Se espera que la UE en particular se beneficie, con un 28% del mercado en 2026, 4 puntos porcentuales más que en 2016. El aumento de las exportaciones se apoyará en particular en los envíos de queso. China y Egipto esperan duplicar sus requerimientos de importación de queso a lo largo de la década, mientras que la UE también podrá enviar más Canadá bajo el acuerdo CETA, y Rusia después de que se suspenda la prohibición de importación.
Fonte: Agro News Castillayleon
