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Sin embargo, los tambos “pequeños y medianos” están sufriendo las olas de calor, lo que genera riesgos a la baja en la producción.
La guerra comercial entre EE.UU y China se ha potenciado teniendo un impacto negativo sobre los tambos “grandes” de China. El 93% de la alfalfa importada de China proviene de EE.UU y el arancel se incrementó 25%. Lo anterior se materializaría en un impacto en los costos en torno al 3-4%. Los operadores de estos tambos están evaluando proveedores alternativos así como el ajuste en la dieta (Rabobank).
La devaluación del yuan frente al dólar en los últimos meses ha generado un menor interés en las importaciones. Las importaciones de LPE y LPD tomadas en conjunto para el primer semestre del año (con estimación de exportaciones a China) se incrementaron 5,5%.
El costo de producir LPE en China continúa siendo mayor (5.000 US$/ton) a la alternativa de la importación (US$ 4.000) (Rabobank).
En lo que queda del año, las importaciones de lácteos dependerán en gran medida de la evolución del consumo y del tipo de cambio.
Fuente: Rabobank
