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En la decimoquinta edición del boletín digital para el sector lácteo, accedemos a la actualización al mes de JULIO 2018 del cálculo de Valores de referencia del litro de leche cruda elaborado bajo el convenio INTA-IAPUCo, trabajo que constituye un inédito y destacado aporte para generar confianza entre los actores de la Cadena Láctea.
Presentamos el gráfico que resume la dinámica de la oferta y demanda del mercado lácteo argentino en los últimos 21 meses. Recordamos que esta información no debe tomarse como un dato puntual preciso dado que surge de más de 500 modelos evaluados y presenta una gran dispersión. Es más bien una novedosa herramienta para que los actores del sector puedan ORIENTARSE al interpretar lo que ocurre entre la oferta y demanda de leche y observar la TENDENCIA que el mercado ostente.
Evolución del mercado lácteo en Argentina
El análisis arranca en noviembre de 2016. Hasta marzo de 2017 constituye una muestra del período pierde-pierde que abarcó los 19 meses previos al inicio de éste convenio donde el precio pagado por la materia prima (línea azul) no cubría los valores necesarios para cubrir costos de producción de la materia prima (línea punteada) y excedían también los valores posibles de abonar por la leche (línea roja para la Mega y Gran Industria y amarilla para las Medianas y Pequeñas industrias lácteas). A partir de abril 2017 y hasta septiembre de 2017, el sistema generó valores netos positivos. Pero a partir de enero 2018 los costos de producir leche comienzan una escalada notoria hundiendo a la producción en un desfasaje no observada anteriormente en toda la serie, acentuándose hasta el mes de julio.
Todo esto se combinan para que en lo que va de 2018 se acumulen valores retenidos negativos de toda la cadena, agravados sensiblemente en julio:
Valores netos retenidos
El sector industrial desde abril a diciembre de 2017 retuvo valores netos positivos, pero durante el 2018 mostró valores negativos con gran influencia de las PyMES, acumulando en promedio del segmento industrial para los 21 meses del período analizado una pérdida de –437 millones de pesos. Mientras tanto el sector de producción primaria acumula en el mismo período una pérdida casi 10 veces mayor totalizando –4.698 millones de pesos. El sector de producción primaria, con la absorción del 91% de la pérdida de la cadena, carga con la peor parte.
La endeblez del poder de compra de las PyMES queseras, el precio de materia prima arrimándose a la capacidad de pago de las Grandes, y la extraña ausencia de puja por la leche para exportar mantienen adormecida la demanda por la materia prima en Argentina.
Fuente: https://dairylando.com
