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Una contracción de las importaciones chinas combinado con las interrupciones de la cadena de suministro y un aumento de los excedentes de productos lácteos en las principales regiones exportadoras, mantendrán la presión a la baja en los mercados mundiales durante gran parte de 202. Así surge del último reporte trimestral de Rabobank, publicado este mes, titulado "The Corona Hangover".
"La aparición del coronavirus en China y la propagación a todo el mundo han llevado a vendedores y compradores a evaluar el impacto en el mercado", señala al comienzo el reporte.
La trayectoria ascendente que venía registrando el precio de los lácteos en el último trimestre de 2019 se estanco a comienzos de este año, apuntó el banco holandés especializado en materias primas.
"Los precios mundiales de los productos lácteos se encuentran bajo incertidumbre", dijo Michael Harvey, analista senior de lácteos de RaboResearch. "Pero un final poco favorable para la temporada de producción de Nueva Zelanda está proporcionando algo de soporte de precios", indicó.
Según Rabobank, los patrones de compra de los consumidores de China se normalizarán en la segunda mitad de 2020. Sin embargo, el riesgo de un revés o una recuperación económica demorada en China representa un riesgo importante a la baja sobre los pronósticos actuales de Rabobank.
En este contexto, la producción mundial de leche de los "siete grandes" está aumentando. Todas las regiones dentro de los Big 7 registrarán un crecimiento interanual en el segundo trimestre de 2020, dijo Rabobank.
Fuente: blasinayasociados.com
