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O valor de referência previsto para o leite no Rio Grande do Sul em junho é de R$ 1,7150, alta de 5,28% em relação ao mês anterior (R$ 1,6289). A projeção foi apresentada na reunião virtual do Conseleite/RS desta terça-feira (22) e leva em conta os primeiros dez dias do mês. Segundo o professor da UPF Marco Antônio Montoya, a elevação foi puxada por vários produtos do mix, incluindo leite UHT e queijos. A tendência fica mais evidente na comparação dos últimos 12 meses, quando vários produtos acumularam alta de mais de dois dígitos (junho 2020/junho 2021). "De abril a junho, tivemos uma recuperação significativa dos preços", frisou, alertando que o movimento reflete o aumento de consumo.
A série histórica de preços do Conseleite/RS, acrescentou Montoya, coloca 2021 com o maior patamar já registrado pelo colegiado no Rio Grande do Sul. Considerando valores corrigidos pelo Ipca, o leite em 2021 atingiu o pico de R$ 1,5230. A marca anterior era de 2020, com R$ 1,4862.
O coordenador do Conseleite/RS, Alexandre Guerra, explicou que o movimento de recuperação é somatório de diferentes fatores: o aumento do consumo, a injeção de recursos do auxílio emergencial, a volta às aulas presenciais e a queda na produção no campo. Contudo, alertou que o consumidor brasileiro está menos capitalizado neste ano. "Com a inflação, o brasileiro tem menos recursos do que tinha em 2020".
Para os próximos meses, indicou Guerra, a expectativa é de manutenção do mercado nesse patamar. "O leite é um produto muito volátil. Precisamos que esses parâmetros se mantenham para recuperar a margem do setor, que vem operando com custos muito elevados". Entretanto, a reversão da questão cambial e o aumento do custo do leite nacional podem voltar a estimular as importações e, consequentemente, atingir os preços logo adiante.
Guerra lembrou que o valor divulgado pelo Conseleite/RS é apenas um parâmetro e serve como uma tendência para as tabelas das empresas, que geralmente operam acima desse patamar. "É preciso entender que os custos das indústrias subiram muito. Os primeiros cinco meses do ano foram muito difíceis no setor industrial", ponderou.
