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La India desafiará a la Unión Europea en 2020 como primera en el ranking entre los productores mundiales de lácteos, con un crecimiento de casi un 3% anual durante esa década, llegando su producción a cerca de 150 millones de toneladas, informó un estudio conjunto de la Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) y de la Agencia de las Naciones Unidas para la Agricultura y alimentación (FAO).
La expansión de China será más rápida, de un 3,3% anual. Este crecimiento le garantizará a China un lugar en el ranking de productores de leche en polvo entera, siendo en 2020 responsable de más de un cuarto de la producción mundial.
A pesar de esto el aumento en la demanda de productos importados por China, impulsado por el escepticismo en relación a la leche doméstica, generado por el escándalo de la melanina de 2008, deberá “reducirse lentamente”. “La construcción de confianza en los consumidores sobre los productos locales deberá llevar varios años”, dice el informe. “La modernización de la industria láctea gradualmente mejorará esta situación. A pesar de la mejora en la calidad en mediano plazo, la creciente renta y el fortalecimiento del yuan mantendrán las importaciones de productos lácteos encima de las medias históricas.”
Por su parte India, impulsará una fuerte demanda de manteca, que FAO y OCDE dicen que presentará un mayor aumento de precios de entre todos los lácteos hasta 2020, de un 11% comparado con la media de 2008-10.
