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En 2014 las importaciones chinas de leche en polvo entera serían de 650.000 toneladas versus 520.000 y 406.000 en los años 2013 y 2012 respectivamente, según proyecciones realizadas por técnicos del Foreign Agricultural Service del USDA. Las compras de leche fluida alcanzarían un volumen de 300.000 toneladas en 2014 contra 180.000 y 94.000 en 2013 y 2012.
En el primer semestre de 2013 el precio promedio de la leche pagado al tambero chino se ubicó en 0,56 u$s/litro versus un promedio mundial de 0,34 u$s/litro. “Esa diferencia de precio tan significativa hizo que algunas de las más grandes industrias lácteas chinas establezcan t ventures o directamente adquieran tambos y plantas industriales en otras naciones; hasta el momento, ocho empresas chinas realizaron inversiones en Holanda, Francia, Irlanda, Nueva Zelanda y Australia”, indicó el informe del USDA.
El producto lácteo más competitivo de la industria argentina es la leche en polvo entera. En enero-noviembre de este año, según los últimos datos oficiales publicados por Senasa, las exportaciones argentinas de ese producto fueron de 132.013 toneladas, de las cuales 5709 (4,3%) se destinaron a China.
Si bien el mercado chino tiene un gran potencial de crecimiento, el principal exportador de leche en polvo entera en ese destino es por lejos Nueva Zelanda. Además de la ventaja geográfica –la cual representa un menor costo de flete– en 2008 Nueva Zelanda y China concretaron un acuerdo de libre comercio por medio del cual se determinó un arancel decreciente para las importaciones chinas de leche en polvo neocelandesas (el mismo fue de 5,0% para 2013, será de 4,2% en 2014 y desaparecerá por completo en 2019).
Argentina, al igual que Uruguay, deben pagar un arancel del 10% para poder ingresar leche en polvo al mercado chino.
En lo que respecta a las importaciones chinas de leches fluidas, Argentina está aprovechando el nicho de las leches maternizadas, aunque el grueso del negocio es acaparado por industrias europeas (fundamentalmente alemanas y sas), las cuales pueden colocar el producto a precios competitivos en el mercado asiático gracias a los abultados subsidios recibidos en el marco de la Política Agrícola Común de la UE-27.
