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Moscú importará más productos de otros países para compensar los US$9.500 millones que deja de comprar a la eurozona, EE.UU. Canadá y Australia. La veda aplicada por el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin a la compra de una serie de alimentos provenientes de la Unión Europea, Australia y Canadá abre la puerta para que países en desarrollo como Brasil, Turquía y la Argentina llenen el vacío de US$9.500 millones generado por la medida.
Moscú prohibió el jueves 7 la compra de quesos, pescado, carne vacuna, cerdo, fruta, vegetales y lácteos a países que el mes pasado sancionaron a Rusia, o apoyaron esas sanciones, como Canadá, Australia y Noruega. Las sanciones de la UE –relacionadas con los conflictos del este de Ucrania– restringen las exportaciones a Rusia de equipos para la industria petrolera y prohíben la venta de maquinarias, electrónica y otros productos civiles con posibles usos militares, además de nuevos contratos de armas.
Rusia está llamando a países como Argentina, Brasil, Irán, Israel, Marruecos, Paraguay, Turquía, Uruguay y ex Estados soviéticos que no integran la UE a aumentar sus exportaciones de alimentos para compensar el faltante que genera su embargo. El año pasado, Rusia importó alimentos de esa lista por US$25.000 millones, US$9.500 millones de los cuales vinieron de países que ahora están en la lista negra, según estimaciones de Capital Economics.
El decreto de Putin sobre el embargo dijo que el objetivo era “proteger los intereses nacionales”. Llamó a reforzar las existencias domésticas a fin de evitar una inflación. Empresas como Marine Harvest, el mayor criador de salmón noruego del mundo, sufrieron una inmediata caída de sus acciones no bien se dispuso el embargo, que asestó un duro golpe para los agronegocios europeos, desde Alemania a Grecia.
El más vulnerable puede ser Lituania, cuyas exportaciones a Rusia explican el 2,5% del PBI. Mientras tanto, se espera que la medida eleve las ventas de firmas como Minerva, tercer productor de carne vacuna de Brasil, o de la avícola turca Banvit Bandirma Vitaminli Yem Sanayii Ticaret. Los productores de salmón chilenos pueden ser optimistas; Rusia ya representa el 6% de las exportaciones de salmón del país.
“Brasil ve una oportunidad para reforzar las ventas de carne vacuna, cerdo, pollo, maíz y soja a Rusia”, dijo el secretario de Política Agrícola, Seneri Paludo. En Estados Unidos el impacto fue menor. El año pasado, EE.UU. exportó 1.100 millones de productos agrícolas a Rusia, menos del 1% de su total.
“Se importarán más alimentos de Bielorrusia y Kazajstán, y los arreglos pueden ser relativamente rápidos”, estimó Evgeny Gavrilenkov, economista jefe de Sberbank CIB en Londres.
“Llevará más tiempo aumentar las importaciones desde América Latina”. Las empresas de la alimentación en Tailandia y China y productores africanos también podrían beneficiarse de los cambio de hábitos de compra rusos, señaló Maarten-Jan Bakkum, especialista del ING Groep en La Haya.
