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El horizonte de los productores de leche en Colombia, de acuerdo con las estimaciones de la Federación Colombiana de Ganaderos, Fedegán, es todo un contrasentido que aterrizará con una mayor producción y a su vez, un menor precio al productor. Y para terminar de redondear ese paisaje, se seguirá con un bajo consumo nacional, crecimiento de las importaciones, pocas exportaciones, baja de precios y la incertidumbre de la fórmula del Precio Competitivo de Exportación, el cual afectará a toda la cadena.
Según las estadísticas de la Oficina de Planeación de Fedegán, consignadas en Contextoganadero.com, órgano oficial del gremio, la producción anual aproximada de leche fue de 7.000 millones de litros; es decir, un 9% más que en 2016, lo que significa un incremento de 600 millones de litros. En ese aumento de producción influyó el buen régimen de lluvias en todo el país, factor que de acuerdo con el Ideam, también se tendrá hasta junio de 2018 con la presencia del fenómeno La Niña en el territorio nacional. Es decir, habrá abundancia de lluvias, más pasturas y más leche.
Para Óscar Cubillos Pedraza, del departamento económico de Fedegán, a lo anterior hay que sumarle las estrategias de la industria para bajar precios y no cancelar bonificaciones. El analista dijo que la Resolución 17 de 2012 determinó para 2017 un incremento de 7%, hecho que no se cumplió en varias cuencas lecheras del país. “A octubre de 2017 el precio promedio pagado al productor fue de $1.063, muy por debajo del precio del litro al consumidor”, agregó. Cubillos Pedraza sostiene que la industria “culpa a los ganaderos de ineficientes y producir leche costosa. Sin embargo no se debaten las ineficiencias de la cadena logística y costos altos que hacen que la leche termine en $3.600 el litro y no en $2.000”.
Importaciones lácteas
Según el departamento económico de Fedegán, el año pasado cerró con importaciones del orden de 42.000 toneladas frente a unas exportaciones de 4.800 toneladas. Para este año, con el fenómeno La Niña habrá más leche en el primer trimestre. Este año crecerán los cupos de importación, vía Tratados de Libre Comercio, TLC, los cuales se verán favorecidos con una tasa de cambio a la baja y un precio internacional con esa misma tendencia.
