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El rebalanceo del mercado mundial sigue sin alcanzarse, a mediados del año el mercado está en su posición más débil desde 2009. Por lo que los analistas están considerando que una mejora sustancial en los precios ocurrirá en 2016.
Las caídas de los precios fueron significativas comparadas con el año anterior, en el caso de las leches en polvo perdieron más de un 40% del valor, mientras que quesos, manteca y suero descendieron entre 20% y 30%, con una oferta mundial que continua en ascenso.
En el primer trimestre la producción de los cinco principales exportadores mundiales (Estados Unidos, Unión Europea, Nueva Zelanda, Australia y Argentina) prácticamente se mantuvo, mientras que en abril y mayo aumentaron alrededor de un 2%.
Durante estos cinco meses, las importaciones de China (en leche equivalente) cayeron un 38% respecto al año anterior. Los stocks de leches en polvo permanecen completos y la producción de China se espera que aumente un 4% este año.
Mientras tanto Rusia permanece fuera del mercado, luego de extender la prohibición por otro año.
Otros importadores como México, Sudeste asiático y Japón, han comprado agresivamente pero no han podido captar todo lo que China y Rusia han dejado disponible. Los que cuentan con stocks para los meses que vienen dadas las compras tempranas que realizaron.
Además, no se espera que los compradores presenten mayor interés hasta setiembre.
Otros indicadores:
- Remisión de la Unión Europea en abril se estima en 13,2 millones de toneladas, aumentó un 2% respecto a los altos niveles del año pasado. La evolución de los principales productores en abril: Irlanda +11,3%, Holanda +1,7%, Alemania -1,4% y Francia -1,0%.
- La producción de Nueva Zelanda aumentó 8,5% en abril mientras que en Australia registró un aumento del 2,9%. Pasturas en Nueva Zelanda están en buenas condiciones para iniciar la próxima estación.
- La producción de los Estados Unidos continúa en expansión. En mayo fue de 8,3 millones de toneladas, con 1,4% respecto al del año anterior.
- En los primeros cinco meses del año, China importó 223.237 toneladas de leche en polvo entera, con un descenso del 54% respecto al volumen excepcional del año pasado. La importación de leche en polvo descremada cayó 31% y los productos del suero descendieron un 4% desde un año atrás.
